Simulation Based Prediction Software
Estimation of potential damages caused by Natural Catastrophes

EARTHQUAKE MODULE

The XLS Earthquake Simulation and Loss Prediction Software assists companies in quantifying the risks and losses associated with natural disasters (earthquakes). The model estimates a potential range of losses using a comprehensive events database and catastrophe events simulation engine. The platform's flexibility allows easy customization and can be applied to any country.

Earthquake Simulation and Loss Prediction Software
Main Features and Methodology

 

 

Flexible & Adjustable Includes comprehensive research Extensive geographical mapping features State of the art mathematics

Realistic simulations Easy-to-read accurate reports & charts Compatible with commonly used software Allows risk analysis and scenario testing

Flexible & Adjustable

Creates a unique model to estimate the frequency and range of potential losses to your specific business exposures:

• Trending of your unique exposure profile over future years;
• Allocating standard or user defined vulnerability curves to your various combinations of classes, sources of business and types of risk;
• Includes an assessment of demand inlflation risk;
• Includes current or alternative reinsurance structures;
• Imports detailed risk by risk exposure data per class, sourch of business, type of risk, postal code, sum insured and EML.

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Includes comprehensive research

• Data for thousands of historical seismic events in a modelled geographical area;
• Detailed geological and seismic hazard maps of an area, covering various rock types;
• Geographical data points from isoseismal maps of major historical seismic events in the modelled area;
• International attenuation curves extrapolated from the most comparable seismic zones worldwide;
• 17 standard vulnerability curves (damage ratio versus Modified Mercalli Scale Intensity) for specific types of risks and classes of business.

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Extensive geographical mapping features

• Use your own maps or ours;
• Visually plot earthquake epicentres, mines or any other data sets on your maps;
• Define your own risk areas or use built-in maps based on expert research;
• Let XLS tell you which points fall in any polygon for analysis;
• Plot any unique combination of your exposure set on a 3 dimensional map.

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State of the art mathematics

• Use cutting edge mathematics to accommodate catalogue incompleteness and magnitude uncertainty in estimating earthquake occurrence parameters;
• Estimate frequency and magnitude distributions for each geographical point in the country;
• Optimally estimate multiple parameters using the maximum likelihood procedure;
• Estimate maximum possible earthquake magnitude from historical data;
• Use specially designed interfaces to change parameters at geographical points if required;
• View fitted earthquake occurrence parameters on a 3D map of the country.

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Realistic simulations

• Simulate earthquake epicenters over the whole country using best fit frequency and magnitude parameters at each geographical point;
• View the location and magnitude of simulated losses in a detailed report;
• Fit attenuation equations for each user-defined geological structure area to realistically simulate the impact of each event on every postal code;
• Allocate the appropriate spatial location to each risk in the exposure data set based on postal codes;
• Simulate up to 50,000 annual periods.

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Easy-to-read accurate reports & charts

• Damage to each risk is calculated by using its allocated vulnerability curve, distance between risk location and simulated earthquake epicenter, simulated Richter scale Magnitude and attenuation equation of the geological structure area of the risk location.
• Dynamic process flow charts are included. They allow practitioners to define multiple proportional and non-proportional reinsurance covers for different business segments (i.e. combination of classes and sources of business and types of risk).
  • The software produces the following reports as cumulative probability distributions, probability of exceeding or return periods:
  • Number of earthquake loss events per annum;
  • Number of ceded earthquake loss events per annum;
  • Number of ceded earthquake loss events per annum to each defined reinsurance contract;
  • Earthquake loss amount per event to each defined business segment and all business segments combined gross of all reinsurance / net of all proportional reinsurance / net of all proportional and non-proportional reinsurance;
  • Maximum earthquake loss amount per annum to each defined business segment and all business segments combined net of all proportional reinsurance;
  • Maximum ceded earthquake loss amont per annum to each defined reinsurance contract and all reinsurance contracts combined;
  • Ceded earthquake loss amount per event to each defined reinsurance contract and all reinsurance contracts combined;
  • Correlation matrix of earthquake loss amounts between various business segments gross of all reinsurance;
  • Correlation matrix of earthquake loss amounts between various reincurance contracts.

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Compatible with commonly used software

• Export all reports to MS Excel allowing practitioners to do further analysis if required;
• The reports can be used as input to internal capital models, reinsurance and retrocession structure decision making.

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Allows risk analysis and scenario testing

• Assume the location of an earthquake epicenter and its Richter Scale Magnitude.
• View a cumulative probablity distribution and the probability of exceedance for the earthquake loss scenario:
  • Gross of reinsurance for all business segments combined;
  • Net of all proportional reinsurance for all business segments combined;
  • Net of all proportional and non-proportional reinsurance for all business segments combined;
  • Ceded loss to all reinsurance contracts combined.

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